Impact of US tariffs on pig and pork products
As of March 4, US president Trump has tariffed all Chinese imports at 10% (with a further 10% being discussed), and all Canadian and Mexican imports at 25% (except a rate of 10% on Canadian energy). The agriculture and pig industries in all countries involved are holding their breaths.
Apart from these announced tariffs, all steel and aluminum imports from other countries are subject to 25%. All other goods from European countries and all other nations will be tariffed starting in April at country-specific rates equal to those placed on US imports.
President Trump is known as being a life-long supporter of the tariff instrument. Tariffs will in theory bring in additional revenue for the US (at the same time cuts to government spending are aimed at US $4 billion/day), stimulate domestic production of food, animal feed and other goods, “equalise trading relationships” and lower the value of the US dollar, making US goods exported to other countries more attractive.
Retaliation by Canada, Mexico and China
Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau has announced retaliatory tariffs. In a response on March 4, he stated that Canada will be implementing 25% tariffs on $155 billion dollars worth of American goods. He and other federal officials have targeted a long list of American items, including nearly 400 agricultural products in the areas of poultry, pork, dairy, grains (wheat, barley, rice), fruits and vegetables and many processed foods.
To add context, the Canadian tariffs might be removed again. Currently, Trudeau has halted parliament with him resigning shortly. Therefore elections are to be held very soon, which might change the situation.
Similarly, Claudia Sheinbaum, president of Mexico threatened retaliatory tariffs in early February and she will announce further details this Sunday, March 9.
On 4 March, China imposed 10 to 15% levies against US agricultural goods and foodstuffs.
Reactions from the pig side in Canada
A 25% tariff on Canadian pigs shipped across the southern border would be very difficult for Canada’s pig farmers. Manitoba pig farmers are especially concerned, as 40% of production in that province – about 3 million of the 8 million pigs finished annually – is exported to the US.
News outlet CBC quoted Manitoba Pork chair Rick Préjet that tariffs “could have a very significant impact on what farmers and producers in Manitoba receive” for exported pigs.
In his mind, it will be a question of “how badly” a given Manitoba producer needs to ship pigs to stay afloat, and how much desire there will be among Americans to buy these more-expensive pigs. “Where is that going to settle out?” Préjet asked. “That’s a huge unknown.”
USMEF: “Disappointed no agreements have yet been made”
Also on the US side, there is apprehension about the developments. Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the US Meat Export Federation (USMEF), said in a press statement: “USMEF is obviously disappointed that no agreements have yet been reached that would avoid or postpone tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada, as well as the tariff increase on goods from China. We are reviewing the retaliatory measures announced by Canada and China and are watching for details on the response from Mexico.
“These 3 markets accounted for $8.4 billion in US red meat exports last year, including nearly $4 billion to Mexico. While the United States is the primary supplier of pork and beef to Mexico, U.S. red meat has already been facing heightened competition in this critical market.
“Last year US beef exports equated to more than $415 per fed steer or heifer slaughtered and pork exports equated to more than $66 per head slaughtered. These exports, a large share of which are underutilised cuts and variety meat, help producers maximise the value of every animal produced and allow US consumers to enjoy more of the cuts they prefer.”
Significant effects for agriculture
Reagen Tibbs, commercial agriculture educator at the University of Illinois, recently stated on a blog post on the university’s website that retaliatory tariffs will likely cause “significant effects” on US farmers, who already have “precarious financial outlooks” for 2025.
He noted that “the 2018-2019 trade war affected every sector of US agriculture, and a new trade war would likely have the same effect. A decrease in US exports to countries like China could further leave the door open for other countries like Brazil and Argentina to fill the gaps and overtake the US as major suppliers of agricultural products on the world stage.”
