The bank expects global hog prices to remain under pressure in the first part of Q4, followed by a price recovery towards the end of 2012 and into 2013 – which will begin when the current supply boost from feed price-induced herd liquidation fades.
In a new report, Rabobank’s Food & Agribusiness Research and Advisory group looks at the issues of pork supply, demand and pricing in China, the U.S., the EU, Canada, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Mexico and Russia, as well as industry-wide.
In particular, the report looks at the impact of drought in various markets, notably consolidation at the farm level due to high feed costs, as well as the variance in pricing in major pork markets.
David C. Nelson, global Animal Protein strategist at Rabobank and an author of the report, said, “Diverging price trends in key markets were the distinguishing feature of the global pork trade in Q3 2012. Clearly, production cycles are not synchronized globally – and this creates opportunities for those with flexible procurement and sales operations.”
The report explores these key points: