Ukraine poised to see a drop in pig farm numbers
The number of pig farms in Ukraine is projected to drop by 10% in 2025, the Ukrainian Association of Pig Farmers stated.
As a result, the number of pigs is expected to decline at least until the middle of the year, the organisation said, emphasising that the downward trend will also likely be seen in the industrial segment, which traditionally fares better than the industry as a whole.
To a large extent, the negative dynamics are a consequence of a turbulent 2024, the association reported. The market situation is a complex interplay of various factors. While falling production usually leads to a price rally, the ‘limited solvency of the end customers and the general reduction in market capacity’ act as significant counterweights, curbing opportunities for price growth.
Emigration
The Ukrainian pork market is believed to suffer from continuing emigration from the country. During the past 3 years, the Ukrainian population decreased by 6.2 million, Human Rights Commissioner Dmitry Lubinets estimated in December 2024.
Imports pressure
Moreover, the Ukrainian pig industry is experiencing growing pressure on imports. As explained by the association, in response to a rise in farmgate prices of live pigs, Ukrainian meat processors switched to pork imports, which appear to be cheaper.
In fact, pork imports to Ukraine, which were at a minimal level during the last year, started showing signs of revival in January 2025. In the first month of the year, Ukraine imported 323 tonnes of pork, twice as much compared to the entire fourth quarter of 2024, the association revealed. So far, this trend does not present a threat to the industry.
“Although there has been a revival of import activity, the import flow is not yet so active as to significantly affect the situation on the domestic market,” the association emphasised.
During the last months, the Ukrainian price of live pigs climbed by 5.5%, which the association attributes to a seasonal factor. In the meantime, the price of European pork “continued their typical seasonal decline,” the association added.
Exports continue
Against this background, Ukraine became a net pork importer in January 2025, as the country exported only 295 tonnes of pork. Ukraine exports small batches of pork to the UAE, Hong Kong, Malaysia, and Liberia. In addition, in the first month of 2025, the country kicked off exports to Georgia.
