EU Outlook: Pig meat production to drop 1.2m tonnes in next 10 years
The EU pig meat production will decrease by 0.5% annually over the next years. This will result in a total decline of around 1.2 million tons by 2035 compared to the 2022-2024 average. The European Commission shared that projection in its Agricultural Outlook 2024-2035.
According to the Commission, the reduction is primarily due to further societal concerns over intensive pig farming, the implementation of stricter environmental regulations in certain EU countries and reduced export opportunities. The EU added that African Swine Fever (ASF) is assumed to remain present in the EU, but no major outbreaks are expected. Continued vigilance will be necessary to prevent significant disruptions in production and trade, the EC wrote.
Consumer preference
The EU per capita pig meat consumption is expected to decline by 0.4% annually, dropping to 30 kilogrammes by 2035 (-5% compared to already lower levels recorded between 2022 and 2024 compared to pre-2021 levels). In the EU, environmental and societal concerns will continue to negatively affect consumer preferences for pig meat. Additionally, the relatively higher fat content compared to other meat types may be viewed less favourably by some consumers.
Pig meat exports
While EU pig meat exports surged in 2022, they are projected to decrease by 1% annually between the last 3-year average and 2035 (-338,000 tons between 2022-2024 average and 2035) considering the high exports volumes in 2022 to China. China, the Philippines and Vietnam recover their domestic production capacity despite the expected continuation of ASF outbreaks. In contrast, there could be increased demand for imports in the US, Australia, sub-Saharan Africa, Switzerland and some other Asian regions. Moreover, the UK is expected to become the EU’s largest single export destination, even though overall UK demand may decrease. The EC also underlined that the EU will need to strengthen and diversify its pig meat export portfolio in the coming years.
Imports
Pig meat imports to the EU are projected to remain low with a decrease of 2.2% annually between the 2022–2024 average and 2035, mainly because the UK is focusing on its domestic market, while significant increases in imports from other countries are not likely.
Medium term
After a price spike in 2022-2023 and a decline in 2024, EU pig meat prices are expected to remain elevated in the medium term due to increased production costs and a tighter supply. However, it is uncertain to which level they will fall back. It is expected that, in the medium term, prices could stay higher than the levels seen in the past due to increased costs and a tighter EU supply. By 2035, prices are projected to reach €2.2/kg. Pig meat prices could remain higher than past levels due to increased costs and reduced EU supply.
