Cautiously optimistic 2025 outlook for US pork
The US pork industry is cautiously optimistic as a new year arrives, but much is still up in the air in terms of global trade, the ‘Farm Bill,’ sow mortality and more.
As Caleb Shull recently wrote in a US farming media column, “after a prolonged period of red ink, it sure is nice to have profitable months in this year’s forecast.” At the same time, Shull (director of research and innovation at The Maschhoffs, one of the largest US family-owned pig operations) stressed that farmers must continue to focus on production efficiency through innovation and high-level execution. “In a period of high demand for quality proteins,” he notes, “we do not want to miss this unique opportunity to provide quality, affordable and more-convenient products.”
Projections for 2025
Meanwhile, US Department of Agriculture (USDA) slightly lowered its projections for 2025 pork production recently. This is due to expectations of lighter dressed weights in the first half of this year. Overall pork production during the last 3 months of 2024 lowered slightly to 7.24 billion pounds, but were about 1% higher than fourth-quarter 2023.
The last few months
Looking back at the end of 2024 however, the USDA also notes that in the last quarter, both hog prices and wholesale pork prices remained above 2023 prices due to lower numbers of slaughter-ready hogs than anticipated. Fourth-quarter hog prices reached $62 USD (€59.8) per 100 pounds, almost 16% above 2023.
Imports and exports
The USDA also reports that recent exports of US pork (October) were almost 2% higher than a year earlier. While projected 2025 export levels are uncertain, imports of pork are expected to decrease, with the ratio of imports-to-domestic consumption of pork set to decline to 5.1%.
In comparison, the ratio for lamb is expected by the USDA to remain historically elevated at about 70%, and for beef, imports will surge and the ratio will reach about 17%, a record.
Uncertainties and certainties
The so-called Farm Bill, which sets federal funding levels and policy direction, was set to pass in 2024 but is expected to be passed soon. It may address Prop 12 issues or it may not. It is also uncertain whether there will be much progress in the legislative and public acceptance journey of gene editing for resistance to PRRS (porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome).
Adapting sows to Prop 12-compliant housing, PRRS outbreaks and heat waves are to blame for the large number of US sow deaths over the last 2 years. Average sow mortality on US pig farms reached an unprecedented rate of 16.2% in 2023 but at least stabilised in 2024.
Shull expects to see progress in solving this problem, but how much progress this is in 2025 is anyone’s guess.
