USA: uncertainty over corn supplies remains

The waiver would have eased uncertainty over feed supplies and prices and helped bring long-term stability to US pork producers and consumers, according to NPPC.

Deeply disappointed
“We are deeply disappointed with EPA’s decision,” said NPPC President Bryan Black. “Pork producers need more time to adjust to the volatility of the grain markets and to the government’s ethanol mandate, which this year is requiring the ethanol industry to use about one-third of the total US corn crop. That has contributed to the uncertainty with regard to feed grain supplies and prices.”

The federal Renewable Fuels Standard mandates the production in 2008 of 9 billion gallons (34 billion litres) of corn-based ethanol. That will require more than 3 billion of an expected harvest of less than 13 billion bushels (3.3 million tonne) of corn this year.

A waiver of the 2008 RFS would have reduced the production mandate to 4.5 billion gallons (17 billion litres).

Costs raising
Pork producers have been reeling from higher prices for feed, which accounts for 70% of the cost of raising a hog. Feed grain prices already were increasing starting in the summer of 2006 in part because of the rapid rise in ethanol production. Since then, increased global demand for crops, weather conditions and the ethanol mandate have fueled even higher grain prices.

A bushel of corn (0.254 metric tonne) for September delivery now is selling above $5 – it was around $7 in mid-summer – compared with about $2.60 in July 2006.) From September 2007 to April 2008, corn prices rose 124% and soybean meal prices went up 94%. During that time, pork producers lost an average of $30 per hog marketed.

NPPC in June urged EPA to grant Texas a waiver of the RFS. Without the waiver, NPPC pointed out in comments to the agency, the Texas pork industry, which generates more than 3,100 jobs and nearly $200 million in gross state income, could be adversely affected.

Volatile
“The RFS has helped create one of the most volatile economic situations ever to hit pork producers,” said Black. “We need relief, and the RFS waiver was one way the government could have provided it. Now, we expect to see increasing pressure on the domestic pork industry, with the hog herd continuing to be reduced, producers going out of business, jobs being lost and retail pork prices rising.”

Related website
National Pork Producers Council (NPPC)
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

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